Phase 2 officially begins today. With the first half of this difficult match closed, what can we say we really know about our opponent?
Are we ready for phase 2? Is it really the right time to leave? While we have been debating for days on the meaning of "joint", there are still too many doubts about many aspects of this emergency. Phase 2 talks about Italy's economic recovery, tries to dictate the guidelines for the reopening of many businesses. But the virus has not been defeated at all and therefore it would be advisable to be more cautious. And then we report the observations drawn by an expert in the sector Marco Cattaneo. He is the director of the scientific magazine "Le Scienze", the Italian edition of Scientific American. Address some aspects and above all try to clarify some perplexities.
Too many doubts about the virus that is still so scary
Like many scholars and connoisseurs of the subject, Cattaneo also observes the importance of tracing, tests and therefore of cures to defeat Covid 19. Unfortunately, however, not everyone is willing to follow the directions. The only certainties, which it is always good to remember, concern the contagion. As Cattaneo pointed out in a recent interview with Agi, Covid is a respiratory virus. To transmit it, therefore, breath, cough, sneeze. Indoor places such as supermarkets are unsafe. But open ones like parks or villas risk becoming gathering places. So what to do for avoid still the spread of the infection? Respect the rules, assures Cattaneo. But the doubts remain.
Among the doubts: the air we breathe?
Attention should also be paid to the air circulation “I think it is more probable - warns Cattaneo - that the ventilation systems may have a role in diffusion of the virus, circulating the air with the viral particles emitted by a patient well over 1-2 meters, as recently shown by a Chinese study. This will be a problem especially in summer, also because if the issue is the air circulation, sanitizing the systems would not help much.". A virus whose incubation time is 5-7 days at most 15. But it would take at least a month of zero cases to restart.
Traceability and testing, the word to the expert
Based on the indications of the WHO, the World Health Organization has been introduced to the model of three T's: Test, Trace, Treat, i.e. test, do the tracing and cure. For Cattaneo, more tests would be needed, at least 150 per day, even on a sample basis, to be associated with the thermoscanner for the tested. This would be the only way to isolate any positive and then trace the contacts. But there are also many doubts about this. Serological tests useful for trying to carry out an epidemiological investigation on 'submerged' patients "but at the moment cannot replace the molecular analysis - he observes -, that is, the swab".
Certainties: the asymptomatic
It is necessary to define the perimeter of the contagion, an early tracking in order to isolate it. In fact, among the certainties that we have in the scientific world there is the one that concerns the asymptomatic. “It is important to define the perimeter of the contagion, and to 'fish' as positive as possible with few or no symptoms - he says -. Instead in Italy, at least at the beginning, the opposite strategy was pursued: as has been said, we found ourselves confronted to a flock of sheep that kept falling off a ravine, and we hurried down to the valley to heal them instead of thinking about putting up a fence".
The cures for Covid and the hope in the vaccine
There have been many and different therapies that are being tested in the field. We proceed by trial and error. Antivirals, chloroquine, heparin to reduce thrombotic complications, anti-inflammatory. But we don't know, "yet exactly what organic consequences the virus has, there are studies that have traced it to the testicles and other organs: it could also lurk in the body, disappear and then re-emerge, like herpes does. But there are no certainties ". And the vaccine remains the only hope to defeat the virus. But the times, as mentioned several times, are long. At the moment, about a hundred vaccines are being tested. But the race began to arrive at the solution and the expected goal.
High attention to the second wave risk
Since this emergency began, it has always been said that high temperatures could slow down the infection. But the fear is that even if it reduces with the summer, it will not disappear without the vaccine. And so we need to be ready for a possible second wave in the fall.
Doubts about phase 2 and delays in Italy
Cattaneo is certain that unfortunately in Italy there is still a lot to do on the so-called phase 2. “The health system - he says - must be able to test, trace, isolate every contact and cure, and we know that this is not the case, at least not always. And then to minimize the risks in health facilities and nursing homes, and here it was a massacre ”. The measures of safety at school and in the workplace were made with the closure. But the always overcrowded public transport is worrying, which risk becoming immediate vehicles of contagion. Sui imported infections a step forward has been made because for the moment few are traveling.
Ma more information is needed. "In Italy - he underlines - apart from the daily bulletins that we have been following for two months, things have not been told clearly, we do not know if after a huge sacrifice has been asked of 60 million Italians there is a health plan ready for post-emergency. They should explain what will happen, what the inevitable risks will be, what they plan to do to contain them, do not treat us like children. They should make commercials to inform about the new app to track infections or even to explain the correct use of the mask. Instead we are discussing for days what is meant by 'joint'. In short, even on this last point, we need to improve ”.
