The blocking of all activities, being closed at home, was perhaps the best solution to save the lives of many people in Italy. Yes, because if the quarantine was experienced by many as a moment to reflect and dedicate themselves to themselves, it was undoubtedly the necessary means to avoid contagions. The notorious lockdown, a term we have learned to use too, is about to end. And apparently, at least as confirmed by a recent study, it served to save 45 lives. But let's clarify the various aspects.
The lockdown and the study of a team of Italians
This is confirmed by a study carried out by a group of researchers from the University of Trento led by Giulia Giordano. Among them there are also Franco Blanchini, Raffaele Bruno, Patrizio Colaneri, Alessandro Di Filippo, Angela Di Matteo and Marta Colaneri. The reference model predicts the course of the pandemic caused by Covid - 19 in Italy using the data of the epidemic. In particular, according to the researchers, the new epidemiological model, called "SIDARTHE", distinguishes between detected (diagnosed) and undetected (undiagnosed) cases and between different disease severities. The researchers considered data from Italy from February 20, 2020 (day 1) to April 5, 2020 (day 46). The progressive restrictions, as well as the blockade from 9 March, would have influenced the spread of the pandemic in the country.
Lockdown containment measures are necessary
Lo studio, which was also published in the journal Nature Medicine, highlights how important it is to implement total blockade in the population. In fact, this method could save more lives, compared to a less rigorous block of the population. The researchers also suggest the use of tests in the infamous phase two, necessary to contain the virus, is crucial.
The study is useful for governments
This research could be useful for launching targeted policies between the various countries, aimed at containing the contagion. Strong points, therefore, are the blocking and social distancing, but also the testing and tracing of contacts. In fact, the study shows that social distancing measures are necessary and effective. But only by applying them from the initial stage. However, we can speak of a safe relaxation of these measures, says the research, only in the presence of widespread testing and traceability of contacts.
Doubts about phase 2
The fear is in fact that by easing the measures with the start of phase 2, from 4 May, the number of deaths could rise. In fact, there is talk of the risk of reaching 70 thousand people who died within the first year of the epidemic: February 2021. Hence the need for targeted interventions with the presence of widespread tests and traceability of contacts to avoid that, by loosening the countermeasures, we can return to the height of the epidemic.
